(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to statistics from Vietnam Customs, the country’s total canned tuna export value in 2025 reached over USD 275 million, down 8% compared to 2024. Vietnamese canned tuna products were present in approximately 80 markets worldwide. However, the 2025 picture shows clear divergence: the U.S. maintained stability, the EU declined sharply, while several Middle East–North Africa (MENA) markets accelerated.
Exports to the U.S. Remain Flat, EU Drops Significantly
In the 2025 market structure, the U.S. continued to serve as the largest pillar, with export value slightly higher than in 2024, reaching over USD 190 million. In contrast, exports to the EU fell sharply by 22%, to around USD 57 million. Several European markets recorded notable declines, such as Germany (-27%), Finland (-3%), and Romania (-36%), reflecting competitive pressure and uneven recovery in consumer demand.
High living costs, a growing trend of “trading down” to cheaper options, and competition from traditional canned tuna suppliers may have contributed to the slower-than-expected recovery in the EU.
Notably, exports to several Middle East–North Africa markets surged, including Libya (+70%), Egypt (+127%), and the UAE (+302%), along with strong growth in some smaller-scale markets. This signals that Vietnamese enterprises are making efforts to expand distribution channels, diversify customers, and reduce reliance on traditional markets amid intensifying competition.
Global Demand Remains Stable but Sensitive to Raw Material Prices
Globally, canned tuna continues to enjoy relatively stable demand thanks to its convenience and suitability for retail channels. However, 2025 saw significant fluctuations in skipjack tuna prices—an essential raw material that directly impacts production costs and profit margins for canners.
Given the highly competitive nature of canned products, volatile raw material prices force companies to constantly balance between maintaining market share and protecting profit margins, particularly for private-label orders and long-term contracts.
2026 Outlook: Market Expansion Opportunities Amid Rising Policy Risks
Entering 2026, Vietnam’s canned tuna export prospects are seen as having room for recovery, but outcomes will depend heavily on policy variables and compliance costs. The domestic raw material bottleneck has been eased, reducing pressure on processing plants—especially for products with steady input demand such as canned tuna. However, Vietnamese tuna continues to face policy-related risks in key markets.
Exports to the U.S. are expected to encounter greater challenges and may slow down in 2026. Starting January 1, 2026, the Fisheries Service under the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) requires a Certificate of Admissibility (COA) for seafood products exported to the U.S. The certificate must demonstrate that the species composition, harvesting method, and fishing location of products are not subject to import restrictions under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) Import Provisions. This requirement could increase the risk of customs delays or order disruptions if documentation and verification processes are not fully aligned.
Additionally, the high reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Vietnamese goods are making Vietnamese tuna products less competitive compared to rivals such as Thailand, Ecuador, and Indonesia.
Nevertheless, the global canned tuna market is forecast to grow in the medium term, creating opportunities for Vietnamese enterprises to expand exports. In particular, strong growth momentum in the Middle East–North Africa region—especially in the UAE and neighboring markets—indicates substantial untapped potential.