Vietnam’s surimi exports: the imperative for continued expansion into high-demand markets needed

Exports regain momentum from mid-year According to trade statistics, Vietnam’s surimi and fish cake exports reached $34 million in August 2026, up 9% year-over-year and the highest monthly figure year-to-date. This serves as a positive indicator following the market downturn experienced throughout the first quarter and early second quarter. In the first eight months, export turnover totaled $213 million, remaining virtually flat compared to the corresponding period in 2025. Monthly trajectories reveal steep decline from February through May, followed by a rebound initiated in June (which saw a 23% increase), stagnation in July, and renewed upward momentum in August.  The sector has partially recovered its export rhythm, although a clear growth trend has yet to materialize. The relatively stable export value also indicates that businesses have been able to maintain orders despite divergent demand conditions across major markets. Strong divergence across major markets 

Thailand is currently Vietnam’s largest market for surimi and fish cake exports, generating $49 million in revenue - a 2% year-over-year increase - and accounting for 23% of total export turnover. South Korea ranks second at $47 million, experiencing an 8% contraction.  Together, these two markets capture over 45% of total exports, meaning their performance continues to exert a substantial impact on the sector’s aggregate performance. Notably, the decline in South Korea exports remains a primary headwind constraining overall industry growth.  On the positive side, upward trajectories were recorded in China (32 million, up 8%) and Japan (22 million, up 13%). Malaysia also recorded a 17% expansion to $10 million, alongside Taiwan, which surged by 34% to reach $6.7 million. The United States market yielded $8 million, an increase of 17%.  Notably, several smaller markets recorded substantial growth, including France (up 171%), Cambodia (up 367%), Colombia (up 100%) and Jordan (up 184%). However, given their limited contribution to total export turnover, this cohort has yet to drive a material shift in overarching growth trends.  Conversely, exports to Indonesia fell 17%, the Philippines 51%, Lithuania 9% and Spain 78%. The figures highlight the increasingly divergent performance across Vietnam’s surimi and fish cake export markets, with growth in some destinations only partially offsetting declines in others. Continued expansion into high-purchasing-power markets  The stability of total export value in the first eight months of the year indicates that Vietnam’s surimi and fish cake products has maintained a relatively broad export footprint. However, market concentration remains high with five primary destinations - Thailand, South Korea, China, Japan and Lithuania - accounting for a large share of total export value. Against this backdrop, sustained growth in China and Japan, coupled with solid increases in Malaysia, Taiwan and the US, is creating additional opportunities for exporters. This provides a basis for businesses to further expand into markets with strong purchasing demand rather than becoming overly reliant on a few traditional destinations. However, the eight-month figures also show that new markets cannot immediately replace the major established destinations. Q4 outlook: limited prospects for a strong breakout  Entering the fourth quarter, the growth registered in August indicates a positive shift in order pipelines. If exports can remain at around $30-35 million per month, Vietnam’s surimi and fish cake exports could remain relatively stable through the final months of the year. Nonetheless, the probability of a sharp, breakthrough expansion remains constrained. South Korea is in decline and Thailand is exhibiting only marginal growth. Meanwhile, markets posting stronger growth such as China, Japan, Malaysia and Taiwan, are not yet large enough to generate substantial growth for the sector as a whole. The fourth quarter is projected to be a period characterized by consolidation and order retention, rather than explosive growth. Opportunities remain in growing markets and convenient processed seafood products, while the paramount challenges will be sustaining competitiveness and systematically reducing structural dependence on legacy markets.