Shrimp exports to the U.S.: Immediate pressures and the challenge of maintaining market share

Exports to the U.S. decline in the first four months

According to Vietnam Customs data, Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached approximately USD 1.46 billion in the first four months of 2026, up 15% compared with the same period last year. However, exports to the U.S. market totaled only around USD 152 million, down 21% year-on-year and accounting for about 10% of total shrimp export value.

The United States remains one of Vietnam’s strategic shrimp markets, but signs of stagnation first emerged in 2025. While exports to the U.S. grew by only about 5.4% last year—well below the industry’s overall growth rate—the downward trend has become more evident in 2026.

Notably, the decline was concentrated mainly in the category of live, fresh, and frozen whiteleg shrimp, while processed shrimp products recorded a smaller decrease. This suggests that in a challenging consumer environment, value-added products remain more resilient than raw commodity products.

Multiple pressures weigh on Vietnamese shrimp

The current decline in the U.S. market stems from a combination of factors.

First, consumer demand in the United States has not fully recovered. Inflation and high living costs continue to constrain household spending, particularly on higher-priced food items such as shrimp. Current consumption trends favor reasonably priced products, smaller and medium-sized shrimp, and convenient products designed for at-home consumption.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s production structure remains heavily dependent on larger-sized shrimp and raw material products, limiting the industry's flexibility in adapting to changing consumer preferences.

In addition to demand-related challenges, trade remedy risks continue to affect export activities. Ongoing U.S. anti-dumping duty reviews have made importers more cautious when placing orders.

Domestically, the shrimp sector is also facing mounting production cost pressures. Prices of feed, electricity, chemicals, logistics, and operating expenses have risen significantly, while selling prices have not recovered proportionately, resulting in continued margin compression throughout the supply chain. At the same time, disease outbreaks, farming environment challenges, and inconsistent seed quality continue to undermine the sustainability of raw material supply.

Against this backdrop, competition from Ecuador and India is becoming increasingly intense. Ecuador continues to expand its market share in the U.S. thanks to its large-scale production and low-cost advantage, while India remains highly competitive in price-sensitive market segments.

Signs of recovery in U.S. shrimp imports

On the other hand, the U.S. market is still showing encouraging demand signals. According to preliminary estimates from Expana, U.S. shrimp imports reached approximately 150.5 million pounds in May 2026, up about 5.2% compared with the same month last year.

Following weak import volumes at the beginning of the year, shrimp imports into the U.S. have gradually recovered from April to May. However, many analysts believe this increase primarily reflects inventory adjustments and shipment timing rather than a strong rebound in consumer demand.

One noteworthy trend is the stronger performance of convenience-oriented and value-added products. Breaded shrimp imports in May were estimated to increase by nearly 27%, while imports of frozen peeled shrimp declined slightly.

This indicates that the U.S. market is shifting more clearly toward convenient, ready-to-use products suited for home consumption and increasingly sensitive to pricing.

Despite current challenges, the United States remains one of the world's largest shrimp-consuming markets and continues to rely heavily on imports. According to NOAA, approximately 80% of seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported. This remains a significant opportunity for suppliers such as Vietnam, provided they can adapt effectively to evolving market trends.

Maintaining market share through value-added processing and stronger compliance

In the short term, Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the United States are expected to remain under pressure due to the slow recovery in consumer demand, intense price competition, and increasingly stringent import control requirements.

To maintain market share in the U.S., Vietnam’s shrimp industry will need to accelerate restructuring efforts aimed at reducing production costs, stabilizing raw material supply, and increasing the proportion of value-added products. At the same time, exporters must better align with changing consumer preferences by offering smaller-sized shrimp, competitively priced products, and convenience-oriented product lines.

Another increasingly critical requirement is enhancing traceability and supply chain compliance capabilities. As the United States tightens regulations related to food safety, environmental standards, labor practices, and data transparency, the ability to meet these requirements will become a decisive factor in maintaining the competitiveness of Vietnamese shrimp in this market.