China & Hong Kong Remain the Primary Growth Driver
China and Hong Kong continue to be the most significant growth driver for Vietnam’s lobster industry. In the first 10 months of 2025, exports to this market reached $702 million, up 135% and accounting for nearly the entire sector’s revenue. his momentum follows the sharp surge in 2024, when exports to China jumped from $141 million in 2023 to $404 million in 2024, equivalent to 186% growth.
In this major importing market, the competitive landscape is changing rapidly. According to reference data from Chinese sources, China imported nearly 49,900 tons of lobster in the first three quarters of the year, up 13%. However, imports from Canada fell 39% due to a total tariff burden of 32%, while imports from the United States dropped 10% because of 17% tariffs and increasing competitive pressure. In contrast, Vietnam has emerged as the biggest beneficiary, with China importing more than 17,365 tons of Vietnamese lobster (nearly three times the volume of the same period last year) worth $556 million.
Why has China sharply increased imports of Vietnamese lobster?
Tariff advantage is a decisive factor. Vietnamese lobster is not subject to the retaliatory tariffs applied to Canadian and American products, making its selling price significantly more competitive. Geographical proximity provides a major advantage in live transport, reducing mortality and costs. Additionally, Chinese consumer demand is strongly shifting toward green lobster, a segment in which Vietnam has abundant supply. Another factor is that major lobster farming areas have improved production significantly in recent years, enabling Vietnam to meet the sharp rise in demand from this market.
Increasing price pressure and intensifying competition
Despite strong export growth, domestic farmers still face multiple difficulties. Lobster prices once fell sharply due to oversupply after the Lunar New Year period, combined with fierce competition from Australia, Canada, the United States and Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, creating tremendous pressure on domestic purchase prices. When China lifted its ban on Australian lobster, Vietnam’s market share faced even greater pressure.
At the same time, the Chinese market is tightening regulations on quality and processing facility registration. If new regulations such as Order 280 are implemented early and strictly, they could directly affect exports, especially live products.
Flood damage in Phu Yên: Risk of supply disruption
In late November, key farming area in Phu Yên, particularly Xuan Đai Bay, suffered severe losses due to flooding. Freshwater intrusion caused widespread mortality with many farmers losing nearly all their cages and being forced to sell at steep discounts due to a lack of ice for preservation. With more than 27,000 cages, this area is one of the most important lobster-producing regions in Vietnam.
In the short term, exporting companies may not be significantly affected because goods for year-end contracts were prepared in advance. However, in the medium term, damage to lobsters nearing harvest could cause a substantial drop in supply at the beginning of 2026, leading to price volatility and affecting the ability to maintain the current export growth rate.
Outlook for the end of 2025 and early 2026
Demand from China is forecast to remain high in the final months of the year and during Lunar New Year preparations, continuing to create favorable conditions for Vietnamese lobster exports. Nevertheless, warnings from the Chinese side about stricter inspection procedures, together with higher traceability requirements, could create bottlenecks. If new regulations are enforced strongly, inspection times are extended, or costs rise, lobster exports could be immediately impacted.
Overall, lobster remains the brightest spot in Vietnam’s seafood export picture in 2025, thanks to strong growth from the Chinese market. However, to sustain and consolidate these achievements, the industry must simultaneously ensure stable supply from farming areas, enhance capacity to meet market requirements, and proactively adapt to increasingly strict trade policies from China, a market full of potential but also full of challenges.
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