From POR21 Pressure to Opportunities for Vietnam’s Pangasius to Expand into Potential Markets

Since the beginning of the year, U.S. pangasius imports have remained subdued, with export value concentrated more heavily in January and April. The cautious sentiment among importers is believed to have been significantly influenced by changes in U.S. tariff policies. Amid continued uncertainty over costs and trade policies, importers have tended to limit large-volume commitments and wait for further information before adjusting their purchasing plans.

POR21 Reversal Adds Pressure on Exporters

The outlook for Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the U.S. became more challenging after the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of POR21, with significantly higher tariff rates imposed on several companies. Compared with the preliminary results, Bien Dong’s rate increased from US$0.29 to US$1.00/kg, NTSF’s from US$0.07 to US$0.38/kg, while the rates for CASEAMEX and NAVICO rose from US$0.23 to US$0.84/kg.

Companies that had their own separate rates from previous review periods will continue to be subject to their most recent individual rates. Meanwhile, companies that do not qualify for individual rates will face the country-wide rate of US$2.39/kg. The tariff increases raise costs and affect the competitiveness of Vietnamese pangasius in the U.S. market.

Thus, following the relatively favorable POR20 period, during which some companies received a zero-duty rate, POR21 represents a significant reversal and adds further pressure to pangasius exports to the U.S. Companies should exercise caution when determining cash deposit amounts for new shipments and directly cross-check their documentation with U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the DOC.

However, opportunities remain in the U.S. market. Whitefish supplies are facing pressure as some fishing grounds have tightened catch quotas for cod and pollock, creating some room for farmed species such as pangasius. Nevertheless, the expansion of Alaska pollock quotas and increasingly visible competition from tilapia will add further pressure to demand for pangasius.

Market Diversification Can Reduce Dependence

The impact of POR21 on exports is not the same for all companies. Businesses with less dependence on the U.S. market, diversified export markets or a focus on niche markets will be better positioned to mitigate the impact of higher tariffs. In practice, some companies that are less focused on the U.S. market have proactively diversified their pangasius export destinations, thereby reducing dependence on a single market.

In this context, although POR21 presents a challenge for pangasius exports to the U.S., it also provides an incentive for companies to adjust their market strategies and expand into CPTPP markets, the EU, the Middle East, China and other potential destinations. Market diversification will help companies spread risks and become more proactive in responding to changes in trade policies.

Alongside market expansion, improving product quality and value will be a key factor in maintaining the competitiveness of Vietnamese pangasius. Companies should focus on quality, brand building, international certifications, traceability and, particularly, the development of value-added and deeply processed products rather than relying primarily on frozen fillets.

Better compliance with the requirements of individual markets, differentiation through quality and product diversification will enable Vietnamese pangasius to make better use of new market opportunities while strengthening its competitiveness in traditional markets.

POR21, therefore, is not merely a tariff challenge but also a test of the Vietnamese pangasius industry’s ability to adapt. The U.S. remains an important market with further potential, but the industry’s growth outlook should not depend on a single destination. In the long term, market diversification, higher product quality and the development of value-added products will provide the foundation for Vietnamese pangasius to sustain growth and strengthen its position in international markets.