Vietnam’s tuna exports recover, but why does uncertainty remain?

The export landscape is changing

According to statistics from Vietnam Customs, tuna exports reached nearly US$86 million in September 2026, up 18% year on year. This marked the fourth consecutive month of export growth.

In the first nine months of the year, tuna export value totaled nearly US$720 million, an increase of 6% compared with the same period last year. This result is noteworthy because exports faced persistent difficulties during the first five months, declining by 6–15% in each month from February through May.

The improvement since June has enabled the tuna industry not only to offset earlier losses but also to return to cumulative growth for the first nine months. From June to September alone, export value exceeded US$353 million, up approximately 19% year on year.

Nevertheless, growth remains fragile. September exports were lower than those in July and August, indicating that exports are recovering but have yet to establish a consistent month-on-month upward trend.

Markets diverge, and opportunities are unevenly distributed

A key feature of Vietnam’s tuna export performance this year is the divergence among markets. According to data for the first eight months, the US remained the largest market, with approximately US$248 million in exports, up 8%. Exports to Russia increased by nearly 56%, while Canada and Japan recorded growth of approximately 7% and 4%, respectively. By contrast, exports to the EU fell 17%, while those to Thailand declined by nearly 30%.

These differences indicate that export growth remains uneven. While some markets continue to increase imports from Vietnam, other traditional destinations are facing difficulties due to purchasing demand, import policies, and competition from alternative suppliers.

In the EU, the challenges extend beyond demand. The implementation of the electronic catch certification system, CATCH, from 2026 requires businesses to pay greater attention to traceability data. Meanwhile, ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and Indonesia and the Philippines could alter the balance of tariff preferences over the medium term. As competing suppliers gain better market access, Vietnam’s advantages under the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) will increasingly need to be supported by effective raw material controls and compliance with rules of origin.

In the US, the largest market for Vietnamese tuna, tariff policies and catch-origin requirements continue to create uncertainty for exporters. Although demand for canned tuna shows signs of improvement, this does not necessarily mean that orders from Vietnam will increase proportionately.

Where will tuna exports head in the final three months of the year?

The nine-month results show that Vietnam’s tuna industry has moved beyond the downturn at the beginning of the year. However, the outlook for the remaining months will depend heavily on developments in the US and EU markets.

If exports maintain an average of approximately US$85–90 million per month, as in recent months, full-year export value in 2026 could reach around US$975–990 million. However, this remains a conditional scenario, as year-end orders will continue to be affected by import tariffs, raw material costs, transportation expenses, and catch documentation requirements.

In this context, market diversification needs to become more substantive. Russia, Canada, Japan, and several medium-sized markets could support growth, but they are unlikely to replace the roles of the US and EU immediately. At the same time, businesses need to pay greater attention to product mix, develop processed products tailored to individual markets, and strengthen their ability to control the legality of raw material supplies.

The recovery in recent months has improved Vietnam’s tuna export performance for the first nine months of 2026. However, the ability to sustain growth in the fourth quarter remains uncertain, particularly as exports to the EU continue to decline and the US market faces potential tariff policy changes. Performance in the final months of the year will depend largely on order trends in these two markets and the industry’s ability to expand exports to other destinations.