Vietnam’s Crab Exports to U.S. Hit 80%: Strategic Growth Amid Looming MMPA Risks

The first 11 months of 2025 saw positive growth signals for Vietnam’s crab industry, though the export landscape remains heavily concentrated on the U.S. market. According to Vietnam Customs, total crab export turnover rose 9% year-on-year. The U.S. alone accounted for nearly $67 million, a 15% increase. This overwhelming dominance highlights the U.S. market’s role as the industry’s primary engine, yet it also exposes Vietnamese exporters to "make-or-break" variables in 2026, particularly regarding shifts in U.S. policy and MMPA compliance.

The U.S. Remains the Engine - but Regulatory Risks Are Rising

In November 2025 alone, Vietnam’s crab exports reached nearly USD 10 million, with the U.S. accounting for over 86% of export value - a 17% increase from the previous year.

Strong demand for pasteurized crab meat continues to be the key growth engine, as the market remains heavily dependent on imports. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. has imported approximately 62 million pounds of pasteurized crabmeat annually in recent years. A large share of these imports could be affected if MMPA restrictions are broadly enforced.

MMPA: Import Ban Risk from January 1, 2026 - and a Temporary Pause for Crab

The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has determined that seafood products imported from fisheries that are not deemed “comparably effective” will be prohibited from entering the U.S. starting January 1, 2026.

NOAA has also emphasized the role of the Certification of Admissibility (COA) mechanism. Even if a shipment is not directly subject to a ban, products sharing the same Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and country of origin with banned fisheries may be required to provide additional certification proving that they are not associated with prohibited fishing activities from January 1, 2026 onward. This requirement is expected to increase compliance costs and potentially delay customs clearance.

In a recent development, the U.S. Court of International Trade formally issued an order staying litigation between the National Fisheries Institute (NFI), the National Restaurant Association (NRA), several U.S. seafood companies, and the U.S. Government regarding the enforcement of the MMPA.

Under this order, the January 1, 2026 effective date of the import ban on crab products from Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka has been temporarily suspended, pending NOAA/NMFS’s completion of a reassessment of “comparability findings” - that is, an evaluation of whether exporting countries provide marine mammal protection measures comparable to those of the United States.

However, a temporary suspension does not eliminate risk. This period should be viewed as a critical window for exporters to complete documentation, strengthen compliance evidence, and standardize traceability systems.

The EU: A Bright Spot Demanding Higher Standards

While the U.S. dominates, the EU has emerged as a remarkable bright spot, with crab exports reaching nearly USD 3 million in the first 11 months of 2025, a 109% surge. Exports to France and Belgium increased dramatically, posting triple-digit growth of 121% and 952%, respectively.

By contrast, exports to CPTPP markets and China declined during the same period.

Across the global crab market, importers are increasingly prioritizing traceability, sustainability certifications (such as MSC and FIP), and value-added processing. This trend is pushing Vietnamese exporters to adapt more rapidly in terms of production processes, documentation, and compliance systems. Strategically, this shift also offers a pathway for Vietnam’s crab industry to reduce its dependence on policy fluctuations in any single market.

With current growth momentum, Vietnam’s crab exports are expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2026, provided the U.S. continues to allow imports during NOAA/NMFS’s reassessment period and Vietnam moves swiftly to fully align its compliance framework with MMPA requirements.The EU is expected to remain a vital secondary pillar, though this growth is strictly contingent on meeting the "Green" entry requirements: Traceability – Sustainability – Deep Processing.