Tuna exports in the first half of 2026: One month of strong growth is not enough to ease mounting pressure

June growth driven by a recovery in exports

According to Vietnam Customs, tuna exports reached nearly USD 72 million in June 2026, up 20% compared with the same month last year. This marked the first strong monthly rebound following several months of sluggish export performance.

Nevertheless, cumulative tuna exports for the first six months of 2026 totaled USD 355 million, down 5% year-on-year. Although the decline narrowed from 7% recorded after the first five months, the industry has yet to return to a growth trajectory.

Export growth was recorded in 18 out of the top 20 markets, with the strongest increases seen in Russia (+83%), the Philippines (+31%), the United Arab Emirates (+29%), Israel (+17%), and the CPTPP market (+6%).

The market picture remains highly fragmented. While some destinations have shown signs of recovery, others continue to struggle with weak demand.

U.S. market recovers slightly but tariffs remain a concern

Tuna exports to the United States reached nearly USD 35 million in June, up 6% year-on-year after a prolonged period of decline. This rebound reflects importers' efforts to rebuild inventories ahead of potential changes in U.S. tariff policies.

However, the growth remains modest. U.S. importers continue to exercise caution due to uncertainty surrounding future tariff measures. Following the U.S. Supreme Court's suspension of IEEPA tariff orders, the White House has announced plans to introduce new tariffs under Section 301, creating additional uncertainty for importers.

CATEX fails to revive the EU market

The European Union remains the biggest challenge. Tuna exports to the EU fell 18% in June.

Despite the implementation of the Vietnam–EU Countervailing Measures and Trade Enhancement (CATEX) initiative, the agreement has yet to generate a significant boost in export performance. Market demand remains weak, while European buyers continue to reduce inventories and purchase only when necessary.

Another concern is the new traceability and sustainability requirements under the EU's Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing regulations and broader environmental policies. These stricter standards are forcing Vietnamese exporters to invest more heavily in compliance and supply chain transparency.

Indonesia gains ground as competition intensifies

While Vietnam faces headwinds in traditional markets, Indonesia is gradually strengthening its position in the EU.

Indonesia benefits from abundant tuna resources, preferential tariff treatment under several trade agreements, and a fishing fleet that has increasingly improved its ability to meet sustainability and traceability standards. As a result, Indonesian tuna is becoming more competitive in Europe.

This shift presents additional challenges for Vietnamese exporters, particularly as Indonesia continues to expand its market presence in the EU.

Rising freight costs add further pressure

In addition to weak demand, soaring ocean freight rates are placing increasing pressure on Vietnam's tuna exporters. Most tuna products are shipped over long distances to the U.S. and Europe, making logistics costs a critical factor affecting competitiveness.

Higher freight rates are driving up export costs, squeezing profit margins, and increasing delivery risks. For frozen tuna loins, cooked loins, canned tuna, and other processed products supplied to retail chains, much of the increased transport cost cannot be passed on to buyers.

As a result, the second half of 2026 will require exporters not only to secure new orders but also to optimize logistics, diversify markets, and improve operational efficiency in order to remain competitive in an increasingly challenging global market.