Modest Growth, but an Unstable Trend
According to Vietnam Customs data, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Sweden reached more than US$3 million in the first five months of 2026, up around 5% year-on-year. In the same period of 2025, exports had already increased by nearly 29% compared to 2024. Looking at the two-year trend, Sweden still offers a certain amount of room for Vietnamese tuna products.
However, this year’s growth has clearly slowed. This suggests that after a period of relatively rapid expansion last year, the market is entering a phase of adjustment. For a destination such as Sweden, this development is not entirely unexpected. The market is relatively small, with stable but selective demand, meaning growth tends to come in cycles linked to import schedules rather than through prolonged surges.
A Cautious Buying Pattern
The most noteworthy aspect is not the cumulative export value but the monthly fluctuations. Exports surged by 160% in January 2026, then fell by 37% in February, 47% in March, and 62% in April, before rebounding sharply by 382% in May.
Such volatility suggests that Swedish buyers are purchasing according to specific procurement cycles, closely linked to distributor plans and retail inventory levels, rather than maintaining consistent buying patterns throughout the year. Sweden is not a market where demand is declining, but neither is it one showing sustained and predictable growth.
A Small Market That Should Not Be Overlooked
Sweden is not among the largest destinations for Vietnamese tuna. Nevertheless, it remains an important market because it is part of the Nordic region, where buyers typically place high demands on quality, traceability, reliable supply, and compatibility with modern retail systems.
Maintaining a presence in this market is significant not only because of the export value itself but also because it demonstrates that Vietnamese products can gain a foothold in highly selective markets. This is an advantage that should not be underestimated, particularly as competition in the EU increasingly favors suppliers capable of delivering consistent quality and reliable supply.
Competition in Sweden Reflects Competition Across the EU
Vietnamese exporters are not only competing with suppliers selling directly into Sweden. In reality, Sweden is part of the EU’s broader import and distribution network. This means that competition in Sweden also involves competing with suppliers that have already established positions throughout the bloc.
As Nordic buyers become increasingly selective, price is no longer the only determining factor. Supply reliability, consistent quality, the ability to meet specifications, and on-time delivery have become increasingly important. Companies with unstable supply chains or overly diversified product portfolios may therefore find it difficult to maintain their position in this market.
Slow but Steady
For Sweden, the most realistic objective may not be rapid growth but maintaining a steady presence. The market is better suited to well-standardized products with consistent quality that cater to retail and at-home consumption.
If Vietnamese exporters can maintain product quality, align with import cycles, and target the right segments, Sweden can remain an important link in their strategy to strengthen their presence in the Nordic region.
Looking at the first five months of 2026, Vietnamese tuna has not achieved strong growth momentum in Sweden. Yet, in an increasingly selective market, maintaining positive growth is already an encouraging sign. The challenge now is how to turn that presence into a more sustainable market position, rather than relying solely on occasional spikes in demand.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Although Germany’s tuna imports have declined, Vietnam’s tuna exports to the market continue to show positive signs. Notably, export value recovered strongly in Q3/2026, and German import data also show Vietnamese products strengthening their position amid competition among suppliers.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood exports are holding double-digit growth, but the opportunities are not spread evenly across product groups and markets. As businesses draw up their plans for 2027, Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS2026) offers a chance to look ahead together: what to sell, where to sell it, and how to prepare for growth in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With less than two weeks to go, the Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026) will officially take place in Can Tho. Under the theme “Seafood Market Outlook 2027–2029 – Opportunities and Potential for Double-Digit Export Growth,” the Summit is organized by VASEP at a time when seafood businesses are facing rapid market shifts, changing buyer demand, trade policy changes and growing competitive pressure all at once.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On October 28, 2026, the China Fisheries & Seafood Expo opened in Qingdao, China. The expo takes place over three days from October 28 to 30, 2026. This is a prestigious specialized seafood exhibition organized annually by Sea Fare Exposition Inc.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the CPTPP bloc reached $7 million, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The bloc rstands as the fourth-largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, trailing Brazil, the US, and Saudi Arabia.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
VASEP - HIỆP HỘI CHẾ BIẾN VÀ XUẤT KHẨU THỦY SẢN VIỆT NAM
Chịu trách nhiệm: Ông Nguyễn Hoài Nam - Phó Tổng thư ký Hiệp hội
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