Q1/2026: shrimp exports grow on China demand, but competition and costs remain high

In terms of product structure, whiteleg shrimp remained the largest contributor with USD 573 million, accounting for 53.6% of total exports and rising 6.3%. Black tiger shrimp reached USD 80.7 million, up 10.8%. The most notable growth came from the “other shrimp” category, which totaled nearly USD 415 million, up 39.3%. Of this, lobster alone reached USD 345.5 million, surging 57.4% and becoming the key growth driver in the quarter. This indicates that while whiteleg shrimp remains the foundation of the industry, short-term growth is clearly driven by lobster and other high-value shrimp products.

By market, China and Hong Kong continued to lead growth, with exports reaching USD 440.1 million, up 57.2%, accounting for over 41% of Vietnam’s total shrimp exports. This market alone imported USD 341.6 million worth of Vietnamese lobster, up 58.4%, equivalent to 77.6% of total shrimp exports to China and Hong Kong. Meanwhile, exports to the EU reached USD 120.4 million, up 16.7%; CPTPP markets totaled USD 270.2 million, up 5%; Taiwan rose 59.2%; and ASEAN increased 38.6%, providing additional support for overall growth. In contrast, exports to the U.S. dropped sharply by 28.8% to USD 95.8 million; South Korea declined 1.4%; and markets such as Russia and Switzerland also continued to fall. Overall, Q1 data shows that growth is heavily dependent on China and a few alternative markets, while traditional markets remain slow to recover.

In the U.S., anti-dumping duties continue to be a major barrier for Vietnamese shrimp. Ongoing reviews of countervailing duties and risks of reciprocal tariffs have also made importers more cautious.

Another significant pressure comes from production and logistics costs. In Q1/2026, domestic shrimp prices generally declined toward the end of the quarter, while costs for feed, inputs, and transportation remained high. The conflict in Iran and tensions in the Middle East have continued to push up global energy and logistics costs, eroding profit margins and competitiveness for exporters.

Outlook for Q2/2026

In Q2/2026, Vietnam’s shrimp exports are likely to continue showing strong divergence. China and Hong Kong will remain the main growth drivers, especially for lobster and live/fresh shrimp, although growth may slow after the early-year peak season. The EU may continue to grow but is unlikely to maintain the same pace as in Q1, as buyers become more cautious and price competition from Ecuador and India intensifies. Japan and South Korea are expected to remain stable, with opportunities concentrated in processed and convenience products. The U.S. market may see some improvement toward the end of the quarter if uncertainty around tariff reviews eases, but overall it will still face pressure from tariffs, price competition, and logistics costs.

For the full year 2026, if no major policy shocks occur and domestic raw material supply is not severely disrupted by disease or high input costs, Vietnam’s shrimp exports could still achieve positive growth. However, growth is likely to remain uneven across quarters and markets. The industry will need to rely on two pillars: leveraging demand from China and high-value segments such as lobster, while strengthening the competitiveness of whiteleg and black tiger shrimp in key markets like the U.S., EU, Japan, and South Korea. As Ecuador continues to maintain a cost advantage and India remains a strong competitor in scale, Vietnam’s sustainable advantage will lie in deep processing, consistent quality, flexible supply capabilities, and increasingly strong compliance standards.