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U.S. whitefish market in early 2026: slowing demand, rising competition, and new pressure on pangasius

News 08:48 06/05/2026
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Entering 2026, the U.S. whitefish market has shown complex developments as global cod supply continues to tighten, while the U.S. trade environment becomes less stable. In this context, the U.S. market has had to become more flexible in sourcing alternative whitefish. However, relying heavily on Alaska pollock is not a long-term solution, as it is a strictly managed fishery with quotas and sustainability regulations, limiting any rapid increase in output to offset cod shortages.

 

U.S. whitefish imports decline

According to ITC data, total U.S. whitefish imports in the first two months of 2026 reached USD 264 million, down 31% year-on-year. Frozen cod fillets remained the largest item at USD 71 million, but also declined by 25%. Overall, most imported whitefish products showed a downward trend.

Another factor affecting imports is the cautious sentiment among U.S. importers. On February 24, 2026, the U.S. imposed a temporary 10% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for 150 days, with the possibility of increasing it to 15%. Under such uncertainty, importers tend to purchase only as needed, shorten contract cycles, and avoid long-term inventory buildup.

Tilapia rises while pangasius faces challenges

On the other hand, tightening supply of traditional whitefish is creating more room for alternative species, notably tilapia and pangasius. In early 2026 data, frozen tilapia fillets ranked as the second-largest imported whitefish product in the U.S., reaching USD 54 million and accounting for 21% of total imports. Frozen pangasius fillets ranked third with USD 44 million, accounting for 17%. This indicates that U.S. buyers continue to show strong interest in more price-competitive alternatives to cod.

Within this landscape, Vietnamese pangasius in the U.S. is both facing opportunities and mounting pressure. According to available data, pangasius exports to the U.S. reached USD 67 million in the first three months of 2026, down 3% year-on-year. Notably, the decline mainly came from value-added processed products, which fell sharply by 83% to just USD 761,000, accounting for only about 1% of exports. In contrast, frozen pangasius fillets remained relatively stable at USD 65 million, up 3% and making up 97% of total exports. This suggests that U.S. demand for pangasius is still heavily concentrated in basic, affordable products that are easy to distribute through retail and foodservice channels.

Improving quality and branding to enhance competitiveness

Overall, Vietnamese pangasius in the U.S. is not only under pressure from tariffs and policy uncertainty but also faces intensifying competition in a market that is both contracting and evolving in consumer behavior. As tilapia continues to gain ground, pangasius’ price advantage is likely to narrow.

To maintain and expand its position in the U.S., Vietnamese exporters can no longer rely solely on a “competitive price” strategy. Instead, they need to shift toward competing on consistent quality, international certifications, sustainability, traceability, and brand building. In the short term, frozen fillets will remain the core product; however, in the long run, only companies that can meet higher standards and build internationally recognized brands will be able to secure a more sustainable foothold in the U.S. market.

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