Exports to the U.S. decline, other markets drive growth
Among Vietnam’s top 10 tuna export markets in January 2026, the U.S. remained the largest, with USD 24 million, accounting for 32% of total export value. However, this figure represented a 6% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. In contrast, exports to several other major markets surged, with Japan up 95%, Germany up 39%, and the Netherlands up 15%. Some markets expanded sharply from a low base, including Egypt (up 129%) and Chile (up 133%).
The export picture in the first month of the year shows that Vietnamese enterprises are increasingly diversifying their export markets. This trend is reflected in rising exports to market blocs such as the EU (up 25%), CPTPP (up 53%), and the Middle East (up 35%).
Why did exports to the U.S. fall while other markets grew?
Although the U.S. remains the largest single market, tuna exports to the country are facing significant challenges, which are hampering trade flows.
Specifically, exporters must now comply with the MMPA requirements effective January 1, 2026. Under these rules, fishery products subject to a “negative comparability finding” are banned from import as of that date. Meanwhile, products not banned but sharing the same country of origin and HTS code with banned items must submit a Certificate of Admissibility (COA) to demonstrate compliance. These additional documentation requirements and inspections may increase costs and cause delays, particularly during the initial implementation phase.
Secondly, U.S. import tariff policies are evolving rapidly. In February 2026, international media reported that the U.S. entered a period of adjustment regarding “reciprocal/additional tariffs,” following a Supreme Court ruling and a shift to a temporary tariff mechanism under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for up to 150 days. Some sources have also mentioned the possibility of a higher general tariff rate, depending on executive decisions. The final tariff levels applied to specific tuna product categories under different HS codes, as well as those applicable to Vietnam, will depend on official announcements and product classifications.
Exports to other markets expected to remain positive, U.S. outlook remains challenging
Given this context, exports to the U.S. are expected to remain uneven due to compliance challenges under the MMPA and ongoing tariff uncertainties. The recovery of exports to the U.S. will largely depend on enterprises’ ability to standardize supply chain documentation, review HS/HTS codes, and coordinate closely with importers to address COA requirements when necessary. If import tariffs or inspections intensify, U.S. importers may adjust sourcing portfolios, exert price pressure, or prolong negotiations, making order flows less stable than before.
Meanwhile, in the EU market, export growth could be sustained if enterprises focus on value-added and canned tuna products while meeting increasingly stringent sustainability and traceability standards.
Exports to the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, still hold significant potential due to strong demand for canned and convenience products. However, businesses must manage payment risks and logistics volatility to maintain momentum.
Overall, tuna exports are expected to continue growing in the early months of 2026, though the pace of growth may moderate.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Although Germany’s tuna imports have declined, Vietnam’s tuna exports to the market continue to show positive signs. Notably, export value recovered strongly in Q3/2026, and German import data also show Vietnamese products strengthening their position amid competition among suppliers.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood exports are holding double-digit growth, but the opportunities are not spread evenly across product groups and markets. As businesses draw up their plans for 2027, Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS2026) offers a chance to look ahead together: what to sell, where to sell it, and how to prepare for growth in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With less than two weeks to go, the Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026) will officially take place in Can Tho. Under the theme “Seafood Market Outlook 2027–2029 – Opportunities and Potential for Double-Digit Export Growth,” the Summit is organized by VASEP at a time when seafood businesses are facing rapid market shifts, changing buyer demand, trade policy changes and growing competitive pressure all at once.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On October 28, 2026, the China Fisheries & Seafood Expo opened in Qingdao, China. The expo takes place over three days from October 28 to 30, 2026. This is a prestigious specialized seafood exhibition organized annually by Sea Fare Exposition Inc.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the CPTPP bloc reached $7 million, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The bloc rstands as the fourth-largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, trailing Brazil, the US, and Saudi Arabia.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
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